How has the global burden of PMS and uterine fibroids changed since 1990, and where is it heading by 2050?

Background: Premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and uterine fibroids (UF) are major gynecological diseases that markedly affect the reproductive health of women of reproductive age (WRA). This study aimed to provide updated global estimates of these disorders among WRA (15-49 years) between 1990 and 2023 and to forecast future trends. Methods: Data from the GBD 2023 were used to assess the temporal trend and future projections of PMS and UF among WRA. Estimated annual percent change (EAPC), ARIMA model, and Pearson correlation analysis were used to assess temporal trends (1990-2023), forecast projections (2024-2050), and examine the association of socio-demographic index (SDI) with major gynecological disorders, respectively. Results: In 2023, the global incidence was approximately 233,405,777 cases of PMS and 10,017,494 cases of UF. Between 1990 and 2023, the age-standardized prevalence rates of PMS and UF among WRA increased, with EAPC of 0.06% (95% CI: 0.04, 0.07) and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.53, 0.62), and the corresponding age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates also increased, with EAPC of 0.05% (95% CI: 0.03, 0.07) and 1.21% (95% CI: 1.01, 1.42), respectively. Projections to 2050 indicate a slight decline in PMS prevalence rates but a mild increase in DALY rates, whereas both the prevalence and DALY rates of UF are expected to rise substantially. The burden and temporal patterns of PMS and UF varied markedly across countries, regions, and SDI levels. The prevalence rates of PMS (r = 0.351) and UF (r = 0.381) showed significant positive correlations with SDI ( p < 0.0001). The PMS burden was highest among women aged 15-30 years, while women aged 35-49 years showed a greater burden of UF. Conclusion: The global burden of PMS and UF has increased over the last 34 years, underscoring the need for targeted public health strategies to improve reproductive health in women.

Reproduced under CC-BY.